The Times Dispatch Blogs

The Football Forecast contest may be over this year, but the college football season still has a ways to go. This weekend features several conference championship games and a few notable regular season games.

First, the best of the conference championships:
ACC: Virgina Tech vs. Boston College — BC beat Va. Tech 14-10 in the regular season, scoring both touchdowns in the final three minutes. The Hokies looked impressive against Virginia last week and I like them to get revenge on the Eagles.
SEC: Tennessee vs. LSU — I like LSU to bounce back from their loss to Arkansas and beat the Volunteers.
Big 12: Oklahoma vs. Missouri — I’ve been impressed with Missouri’s offense all season. Oklahoma beat Missouri in a close game in the regular season. I pick the Tigers to even the score on Saturday.

Most of the regular season games are traditional rivalries.
Army vs. Navy — Perhaps the most storied of all the rivalries in college football. It doesn’t matter that neither team has been much of a factor on the national stage for years or that neither has contended for a national championship in decades, the game is still one of the great events of the college football season. Navy has dominated the series in recent years and that trend should continue this year.
USC vs. UCLA — One of my favorite rivalries in all of college football. The Bruins shocked SC last year and prevented the Trojans from playing for the national championship. USC will avenge that loss, bigtime.
Cal at Stanford — Cal has been one of the biggest disappointments in college football this year. The Bears started 5-0, but have lost five of their last six. Stanford is only 3-8, but they pulled off the biggest upset of the season when they beat USC. Still, I gotta go with the Bears in this one.

For the record, I went 9-6 in the final week of the Football Forecast. My final season tally was 133-38.

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I had my worst week of the season last week, missing six games. Let’s see if I can redeem myself this week.
1. Hoxie at Glen Rose (Game of the Week). The Mustangs have come this far. I’m not going to pick against them now. Hoxie by 4.
2. Arkansas at LSU. LSU is just too talented for the Hogs. Hopefully Darren McFadden can have a big game and strengthen his Heisman chances.
3. Augusta at Earle. Bulldogs over the Red Devils.
4. Alabama at Auburn. Auburn will roll over the Tide.
5. Pine Bluff Dollarway at Pocahontas. The Redskins meet their match in Dollarway.
6. Arkansas State at Southern Mississippi. ASU can’t seem to win on the road. The Golden Eagles will soar over the Tribe.
7. Lavaca at Shiloh Christian. I don’t know and couldn’t possibly care less, so I’m taking the home team. Ditto for Games No. 9, 11, 13 and 15.
8. Tennessee at Kentucky. The Volunteers need a win to capture the SEC East title. I’m picking Kentucky to play the spoilers and send Georgia to the SEC Championship Game.
9. See No. 7 above.
10. Ole Miss at Mississippi State. State will win the game and capture the Golden Egg (however, some Ole Miss players will probably steal the trophy).
11. See No. 7 above.
12. Notre Dame at Stanford. Both teams are terrible. Stanford is slightly less terrible, plus they have a win over USC to their credit. The Cardinal squeak past the Irish.
13. See No. 7 above.
14. Clemson at South Carolina. The Gamecocks started the season strong, but have fallen apart in recent weeks. Clemson wins this heated rivalry.
15. See No. 7 above.

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Last week, I played it safe and took all home teams in the high school playoffs. Seven of the home teams came through for me, with Green Forest’s win at Harrisburg being the only stumbling block. I may get a bit more adventurous this week and pick some road teams.

I didn’t fare so well with my college predictions, hitting on only four of seven.

On to the guessing game:
1. Mississippi State at Arkansas (Game of the Week). Let’s see. MSU 6-4 overall and 3-3 in the SEC with wins against Auburn, Kentucky and Alabama. Arkansas is 6-4 with no quality wins at all, yet the Hogs are a 10-1/2 point favorite. This is a toss-up in my mind. If Arkansas opens up the offense like they did against South Carolina, they’ll win. If they revert back to playing Nuttball, as they did against Tennessee, they’ll lose. I’m not real optimistic, but I can’t make myself pick against the Hogs. Arkansas by three.
2. Hoxie at Gurdon. Hoxie won at Gurdon in last year’s playoffs and they’ll do it again.
3. Louisiana-Monroe at Alabama. Another SEC team beats up on another Sunbelt team. Bama big.
4. Lavaca at Corning. Corning.
5. LSU at Ole Miss. Even if Ole Miss was good (by their standards), they wouldn’t beat LSU. This year Ole Miss in bad (by anyone’s standards). LSU in a laugher.
6. Jessieville at Earle. My winner’s name is Earle.
7. Kentucky at Georgia. Kentucky could give the Bulldogs fits, but Georgia appears to be on a roll. Dawgs by seven.
8. Strong at Marked Tree. MT escaped last week, thanks to a late touchdown. I’m taking Strong.
9. Duke at Notre Dame. Even Notre Dame should be able to beat Duke in football.
10. Dumas at Newport. I have no idea why, but I’m picking Dumas in an upset.
11. Vanderbilt at Tennessee. The Volunteers will have to work a little harder this week, but they’ll beat Vandy.
12. Pocahontas at Ozark. Ozark beats Pokey.
13. Northwestern at Illinois. Northwestern in an upset.
14. Dardanelle at Highland. Highland wins and moves on.
15. Oklahoma at Texas Tech. The Sooners win a high-scoring game.

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The high school playoffs get underway this week. I know nothing about most of these teams, but there are usually a lot of mismatches in the first round, so to make things simple, I’m taking the home team in all of the high school games (Hoxie over England by 20 in the Game of the Week).

Now, on to the colleges:

2. Arkansas at Tennessee. Darren McFadden propelled himself back into the Heisman race with an incredible performance against South Carolina. The potential is there for another big game this week, as Tennessee is ranked 74th in rushing defense. Arkansas will get only its second-ever win in Knoxville and first since 1992.
4. Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic. ASU has struggled on the road this season, so I’ve gotta go with FAU.
6. Alabama at Mississippi State. State has picked up a couple of impressive road wins this season, at Auburn and Kentucky. Unfortunately, they’re at home this week. Bama had better not overlook the Bulldogs, but I’m still picking the Tide.
8. Auburn at Georgia. I like the Dawgs in this backyard brawl.
10. Air Force at Notre Dame. Notre Dame bounces back from their loss to Navy and upsets the 7-3 Falcons.
12. Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Kentucky in a close one.
14. Louisiana Tech at LSU. LSU by a bunch.

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Week 10’s predictions:

1. Florida International at Arkansas State (Game of the Week). FIU has lost 20 games in a row and are currently ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Bottom 10. ASU by 24.
2. Carlisle at Walnut Ridge. A tough challenge for the Bobcats, as Carlisle is ranked in the top 10 in Class AA. I’m taking Carlisle.
3. South Carolina at Arkansas. Arkansas has lost two in a row against less-than-stellar competition. South Carolina has lost two in a row since being ranked in the Top 10. Both teams are struggling at quarterback, but Arkansas has the better ground game, so I’m picking the Hogs.
4. Salem at Marshall. Didn’t Salem lose to Westside earlier this season? That’s a good reason to take Marshall.
5. LSU at Alabama. This ought to be a good old-fashioned SEC slobberknocker. LSU is probably the best team in the country and they’ll have the motivation of playing against their former coach, Nick Saban. LSU wins this one.
6. Piggott at Brinkley. I don’t get to pick Piggott to win very often, but the Mohawks will beat Brinkley.
7. Tennessee Tech at Auburn. It must be homecoming at Auburn. Tigers in a rout.
8. Bald Knob at Batesville Southside. I don’t know anything about either team and I don’t really care enough to do any research, so I’ll go with the home team, Southside.
9. Vanderbilt at Florida. Florida has lost three of its last four and quarterback Tim Tebow was injured against Georgia last week. I still think the Gators have too much talent for Vandy, though. Florida survives a close one.
10. Cave City at Rose Bud. I just can’t make myself pick any team called ‘rose bud.’
11. Navy at Notre Dame. These teams are playing for the 81st consecutive year — the longest continuous intersectional rivalry in the NCAA. Notre Dame has won the last 43 games, the longest winning streak by one school over another in NCAA Division I history. I can’t pick against that kind of history.
12. Paragould at Greene County Tech. Tech hasn’t won a game all year. I can’t pick against that kind of history, either. Rams win.
13. Northwestern State at Ole Miss. It must be homecoming at Ole Miss, too. The Rebels win handily.
14. Nettleton at Wynne. Wynne.
15. Troy at Georgia. If Georgia is still congratulating themselves for their win over Florida, the Trojans could make this on very interesting, but I’m still picking the Dawgs.

Last week: 10-4
Season: 88-25
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Apparently, I forgot to post last week’s picks. Just for the record, here they are.

Last week, I correctly guessed predicted 13 of the 15 games in out Football Forecast contest. Normally, that would have me feeling pretty good, but last week was an exception. Several entrants correctly picked all 15 games and several others missed only one, so 13 out of 15 wasn’t really too hot.

1. Marked Tree at Walnut Ridge (Game of the Week). Marked Tree has far and away been the class of 2A-3 this season. I’m afraid they’ll be too much for the Bobcats. Indians by 20.
2. Florida International at Arkansas. Arkansas will beat FIU to move to 3-0 in the Sun Belt Conference. Who would have thought that, heading into November, Arkansas would have more wins against Sun Belt teams than against SEC teams. Are the Razorbacks eligible for the New Orleans Bowl?
3. Hoxie at Piggott. The Mustangs should beat Piggott and then take a week off while awaiting their playoff assignment.
4. Troy at Arkansas State. It’s tough to get a handle on ASU this season. Troy has been the best team in the Sun Belt all season. I’ve got to go with the Trojans.
5. Rivercrest at Westside. Each team has only one win on the season and both are winless in 4A-3 conference play. I’ll go with Westside to win this battle of cellar dwellers.
6. Ole Miss at Auburn. The Rebels must be even worse than I thought. Auburn in a cakewalk.
7. East Poinsett County at Harrisburg. A big game with playoff implications in 3A-3. EPC didn’t look too good against Corning last week, so I’m picking the Hornets.
8. Mississippi State at Kentucky. Kentucky.
9. Cross County at McCrory. Cross County does Walnut Ridge a favor and beats McCrory.
10. South Carolina at Tennessee. This is a tough one. As far as the coaches go, Steve Spurrier certainly has had Phil Fulmer’s number over the years. What Spurrier doesn’t have this season is a quarterback. The Gamecocks’ quarterback deficiencies were apparent in last week’s loss to Vanderbilt. Nonetheless, I’m picking South Carolina, strictly on the coaching match-up.
11. Rector at Augusta. Augusta easily.
12. Florida vs. Georgia. Florida.
13. Valley View at Osceola. Osceola should squeak past the Blazers in this 4A-3 showdown.
14. Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt. Vandy.
15. Trumann at Pocahontas. I’m picking the Redskins in a close one (or it might be a blowout for all I know, but Pokey will win).

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Week 8 recap

I only missed two predictions in Week 8, but I thought I'd take a few minutes to look back on some of my guesses for the past week.

Arkansas at Ole Miss (Game of the Week). Arkansas needs to win this one if they are going to have any reasonable shot at a winning season. Ole Miss by three.
Final score: Arkansas 44 Ole Miss 8
What in the world was I thinking? Ole Miss over Arkansas? Ole Miss is one of the few SEC teams Houston Nutt has a winning record against.

Tennessee at Alabama. I’m going with the Volunteers to win a close one.
Final score: Alabama 41 Tennessee 17
The Volunteers didn't win - and it wasn't close. This is another "what was I thinking" pick.

Mississippi State at West Virginia. Mountaineers roll over Bulldogs.
Final score: WVU 38 MSU 13
Hey! I got one right!

Texas Tech at Missouri. Forty points may not be enough to win this one. I’m going with the Tigers to outscore the Red Raiders 52-48.
Final score: Missouri 41 Texas Tech 10
As it turned out, 11 points would have been enough to win this one. I never thought anyone, let alone Missouri, could hold Texas Tech's offense to just 10 points.

Corning at EPC. Bobcats nip the Warriors.
Final score: Corning 42 EPC 0
Yep, Corning nipped them with a touchdown midway through the first quarter and then added 35 insurance points.

Maybe I ought to stick to just picking winners and losers.

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As the high school football season winds down, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape for both Walnut Ridge and Hoxie.

In 2A-3, Walnut Ridge virtually assured themselves of a playoff trip with their win over McCrory last week. As head coach Larry Treadway noted, McCrory, who is only 1-6 overall and 1-2 in the conference, must now win out against league-leading Marked Tree and Cross County to dash the Bobcats’ postseason hopes.

With last week’s loss to Corning, Hoxie may have slipped into second place in 3A-3, but the Mustangs are certainly not out of the race for the conference championship. The remaining schedules are definitely in the Mustangs’ favor.

Corning has two tough road games against teams that will probably make the playoffs. The Bobcats are at East Poinsett County this week and end the season on Nov. 1 at Harrisburg.

Hoxie’s two remaining games are against cellar-dwelling (and winless) Brinkley and a road game at Piggott on Oct. 26.

Now, on to this week’s guesses:
1. Arkansas at Ole Miss (Game of the Week). Arkansas needs to win this one if they are going to have any reasonable shot at a winning season. Ole Miss by three.
2. Walnut Ridge at Augusta. Walnut Ridge got back in the playoff picture with last week’s win over McCrory. Augusta picked up a big win on the road over Cross County. I have to go with the Red Devils over the Bobcats.
3. Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee. We could see lots of points in this one. I’m picking the Blue Raiders to nip the Indians in a high-scoring game.
4. Brinkley at Hoxie. Mustangs rebound from their loss to Corning and stampede Brinkley.
5. Tennessee at Alabama. I’m going with the Volunteers to win a close one.
6. Westside at Osceola. Seminoles tame Warriors.
7. Auburn at LSU. LSU wins a slobber knocker.
8. Rector at Cross County. Thunderbirds soar over Cougars.
9. USC at Notre Dame. The Trojans have been struggling lately, but they’re still better than the Irish. USC wins this one.
10. Rivercrest at Valley View. Valley View nips Colts.
11. Mississippi State at West Virginia. Mountaineers roll over Bulldogs.
12. Highland at Trumann. Rebels slip past Wildcats.
13. Texas Tech at Missouri. Forty points may not be enough to win this one. I’m going with the Tigers to outscore the Red Raiders 52-48.
14. Corning at EPC. Bobcats nip the Warriors.
15. Florida at Kentucky. Kentucky is coming off their upset of top-ranked LSU. Florida already has two losses this season. Gators bring the Wildcats back to earth.

Last week: 11-4
Season: 78-21

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It’s the time of the year when football season starts to get really interesting with conference races heating up at both the high school and college levels.

Hoxie hosts Corning in a battle of undefeated teams. The winner will have a leg up in the race for the 3A-3 conference championship, but both teams should be headed for postseason play. The Mustangs are presently in first place with a 3-0 conference record, followed by Corning at 2-0. East Poinsett County is in third place at 2-1, and Harrisburg is 1-1. Piggott and Brinkley bring up the rear, each at 0-3. Barton had won one conference game before canceling its season.

Walnut Ridge is only 1-5 overall, but the Bobcats are still in the thick of a playoff race in Conference 2A-3.

Marked Tree, at 5-1 overall and 2-0 in the league, appears to be the class of the conference. No one else in 2A-3 has a winning overall record.

Walnut Ridge, Cross County, Augusta and McCrory all stand at 1-1 in the conference. Walnut Ridge lost to Cross County last week, so this week’s game against McCrory and next week’s game at Augusta are crucial for the Bobcat’s playoff hopes.

On to week 7’s guesses:

1. Corning at Hoxie (Game of the Week). For the second week in a row, Hoxie faces an opponent that is undefeated in conference play. The Mustangs seize command of the conference race with a 7-point win over the “other” Bobcats.
2. Auburn at Arkansas. This may the most important game the Razorbacks have played in a long, long time. With a win, the Hogs can get back in contention for a good finish in the conference and a decent bowl game. A loss could leave Arkansas scrambling just to finish with a .500 record and a trip to a minor bowl. Darren McFadden can stay in the thick of the Heisman race with a big game. If the Hogs lose, his Heisman hopes suffer another blow. I’d love to be wrong, but I gotta pick Auburn.
3. McCrory at Walnut Ridge. Bobcats claw past the Jaguars for their second win of the season.
4. Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas State. Apparently I was a little too quick to put the Indians back in the New Orleans Bowl. ASU will get back on track and keep the homecoming crowd in good spirits with a win over UL-Laf.
5. Marked Tree at Rector. Marked Tree should win by 40 or so.
6. Alabama at Ole Miss. Rebels pull the upset. Ole Miss by a field goal.
7. Pocahontas at Westside. Redskins easily.
8. LSU at Kentucky. LSU will win and it won’t be as close as some may think.
9. Augusta at Cross County. Another big game in the 2A-3 playoff race. Cross Co. wins at home.
10. Boston College at Notre Dame. Notre Dame broke into the win column last week against UCLA. Boston College is a lot better than UCLA, though. BC by two touchdowns.
11. Greene County Tech at Nettleton. Raiders whip the Techsters.
12. Tennessee at Mississippi State. State will keep it close, but Vols have too much talent.
13. Harrisburg at Brinkley. The words “winless” and “Brinkley” just seem to go together nicely.
14. South Carolina at North Carolina. North Carolina beat Miami last week. I’m not sure if that says more about the Tar Heels or the Canes. Gamecocks step out of conference and pick up a road win against the Tar Heels.
15. Valley View at Highland. Outstanding match-up between perennial power Highland and up-and-coming Valley View. Rebels win this one at home.

Last week: 12-2
Season: 67-17

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1. Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe. ASU looks like they could be headed for another berth in the New Orleans Bowl. The Tribe wins by nine.
2. Hoxie at EPC. Each team is 2-0 in Conference 3A-3. The Warriors will give Hoxie a fight, but the Mustangs will stay undefeated and claim sole possession of first place in the conference.
3. Chattanooga at Arkansas. The Hogs will take care of business by rolling over 1-AA Chattanooga.
4. Cross County at Walnut Ridge. The Thunderbirds will be too much for the Bobcats.
5. Houston at Alabama. That’s the University of Houston, not Houston Nutt. The result will be the same — a win for the Tide.
6. Piggott at Harrisburg. Hornets win a close one.
7. Vanderbilt at Auburn. Which Auburn team will show up? The one that lost at home to Mississippi State or the one that beat Florida in The Swamp last week. Tigers win a tight one.
8. Rector at McCrory. I guess someone has to win this one. Might as well be McCrory.
9. Florida at LSU. LSU wins round one at home. Despite Florida’s loss to Auburn, expect a rematch of this contest in the SEC title game in Atlanta, come December.
10. Westside at Highland. Rebels cruise past Warriors.
11. Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss. Ole Miss gets a win.
12. Brinkley at Corning. Corning should be 2-0 in Conference 3A-3 when they visit Hoxie next week. The Bobcats by a lot.
13. Notre Dame at UCLA. Bruins send the Irish to 0-6. Could be close, though.
14. Mountain View at Newport. Newport will win and it won’t be pretty.
15. Kentucky at South Carolina. Gamecocks squeak past the Wildcats.

Last week: 12-2
Season: 55-15

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